Q4 2026 forecast: Hải Phòng container momentum stays positive, not universally tight

Forecast label: this is an evidence-based directional scenario for late Q3 and early Q4 2026. It is not a carrier schedule, capacity guarantee, congestion alert or freight-rate forecast.

Our base case is that container activity serving northern Vietnam remains above 2025 levels into early Q4, including at the Port of Hải Phòng group. Growth may be less exceptional than the group's first-half result, and conditions can diverge sharply by service, terminal, cargo and week.

Physical cargo signals, not customs values

Vietnam Government News, citing the Vietnam Maritime and Waterway Administration, reported that more than 15 million TEU passed through the national port system in the first five months of 2026, up 14% year on year. The related total of more than 546 million tonnes covered the combined seaport and inland-waterway port system and rose 15%. These are port-throughput measures, but the national TEU figure is still not a booking-space inventory.

Port of Hải Phòng's own consolidated results provide a more focused northern-gateway signal. The group reported 24.33 million tonnes in the first half, up 26.7%, and 1.22 million TEU, up 31.5%. This is the consolidated company group, not every terminal in the wider Hải Phòng gateway. It also does not show the split between international, coastal and other container moves.

The global backdrop has two opposing forces

The WTO reported on 31 July that seasonally adjusted world merchandise trade volume grew 1.9% quarter on quarter and 3.2% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Asia's export and import volumes were 12.9% and 14.6% above a year earlier. The WTO linked much of Asia's rise to intra-regional circulation of AI-enabling goods.

The same update cautioned that the Middle East disruption was only partly visible in first-quarter data. WTO economists expected larger Middle East contractions by year-end alongside stronger growth in Asia and North America. The March baseline for full-year world merchandise trade growth remained 1.9%, with a high-energy scenario subtracting 0.5 percentage points and sustained AI investment potentially adding 0.5 percentage points. An updated WTO forecast is due in October.

Base, downside and upside cases for early Q4

Base case: northern Vietnam container throughput remains positive year on year, but growth varies by lane and does not automatically reproduce Port of Hải Phòng's 31.5% first-half rate. Confidence: medium.

Downside case: weaker orders outside technology supply chains, persistent energy costs or route disruption reduce cargo growth and widen schedule risk. Confidence that these risks exist is high; confidence in their size on an individual Vietnam lane is low.

Upside case: strong intra-Asia technology trade and steady production demand keep selected services firmer for longer. Confidence: medium-low because the WTO does not publish a Vietnam- or Hải Phòng-specific Q4 forecast.

Six planning checks for importers and exporters

• Build weekly TEU forecasts by carrier service, terminal, equipment type and direction; do not apply one national growth rate to every booking.
• Separate confirmed purchase or sales orders from probable and optional volumes, then reconcile the plan before each cut-off.
• Ask for live vessel, terminal, CY cut-off, equipment, free-time and space status before promising a delivery date.
• Keep an alternative departure week or service for priority cargo, with the commercial approval path agreed in advance.
• Track the WTO's October forecast and new official Vietnamese port data; reset the scenario when those indicators change.
• Treat any rate, surcharge, omission or delay only as confirmed when it appears in the relevant live quotation or official carrier notice.

Vietnam freight and import-export impact

The practical impact is a need for earlier, more granular booking control at the northern gateway—not a blanket conclusion that Hải Phòng is congested. Strong physical throughput can increase the cost of late decisions on busy weeks, but it does not prove a universal equipment shortage, rolled cargo, surcharge or delay.

Confidence is high in the cited historical figures and WTO scenarios. Confidence is medium in the direction of the base case and low for any single shipment until its order, cargo, service, terminal and live carrier conditions are confirmed.